The growth rate has been adjusted upwards. In the first estimate, published on May 17, the growth compared to the fourth quarter of 2021 amounted to 0.0 perecent. In particular, the stronger increase in household consumption and the smaller fall in government consumption contributed to the upward revision of GDP growth.
On the one hand, the adjustment results from new, more complete data for the first quarter of 2022 and, on the other hand, from adjustments to the annual figures for 2020 and 2021 and the reconciliation of the quarterly estimates with these new annual figures. This is done every year in June. Based on additional and updated information, a new quarterly distribution of care has also been used for the quarters 2020 and 2021.
The second estimate is made 85 days after the end of the quarter. The first estimate, which is calculated 45 days after the end of the quarter, is based on the most recent data available at that time. After the first estimate, new information on the state of the Dutch economy continues to flow, for example data on the construction, business services, hotel and catering, public care sectors and the financial sector. This data is then integrated into new calculations.
In absolute terms, the adjustment of the second estimate relative to the first estimate has averaged nearly 0.09 percentage points over the past five years (2017-2021), with the two extremes varying between -0, 3 and 0.7 percentage points, both occurring in 2021.
Quarter-over-quarter growth adjustment
With each new estimate, CBS also recalculates seasonally adjusted series for previously released quarters. As a result, the quarter-on-quarter GDP growth rate in Q1, Q3 and Q4 2021 has been adjusted from -0.5 to 0.1 perecent, from 2.0 to 10.5 percentent and from 1.0 to 0.7 percentrespectively. Growth rates for the first three quarters of 2020 have also been adjusted.
Simultaneously with the publication of the second estimate for the first quarter of 2022, revised annual figures for 2020 (final) and 2021 (provisional) are published. Based on the most recent data, the growth rate for 2021 has been adjusted from 5.0 to 4.9 percentent. The economic growth rate for 2020 has been adjusted from -3.8 to -30.9 percentent.
Growth compared to Q1 2021
Year-on-year, GDP increased by 6.7 percent in the first trimester. In the first estimate, the increase was 7.0 percentent. The growth is mainly attributable to an increase in household consumption, the trade balance and government consumption.
In particular, the stronger increase in imports and the weaker increase in exports contributed to the downward revision of GDP growth. As a result, the contribution to the growth of the trade balance was lower than in the first calculation. However, the contribution of household consumption was more significant.
109,000 additional jobs
The second estimate shows that the number of salaried and self-employed jobs increased by 109,000 in the first quarter of 2022 compared to the fourth quarter of 2021. The first estimate suggested an increase of 127,000 jobs.
Compared to Q1 2021, the second estimate for Q1 2022 further suggested an increase of 537 thousand salaried and self-employed jobs compared to the same quarter in 2021, compared to 518 thousand according to the first estimate.
Employment figures are adjusted as additional information becomes available.