Economists stand by forecast for Singapore’s economic growth in 2022, MAS survey finds

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By Ronnie Harui

SINGAPORE — Singapore’s economy is expected to expand this year at the same pace as expected, with slower growth in construction, private consumption and accommodation and food services offsetting faster expansion in industry. manufacturing, non-oil domestic exports and wholesale and retail trade, a central bank survey showed Wednesday.

Gross domestic product is expected to expand by 4.0% in 2022, according to the median projection of external professional forecasters in the Monetary Authority of Singapore’s March survey. This matches the forecast for a 4.0% expansion in the December MAS survey.

Economists lowered their construction growth forecast for 2022 to 9.0% from 15.8%, their growth forecast for accommodation and food services to 9.1% from 9.6% and their projection growth in private consumption at 4.5% against 4.7%. The median growth forecast for finance and insurance was maintained at 4.1%.

Economists raised their forecast for manufacturing growth for this year to 4.1% from 3.3% and their forecast for wholesale and retail trade to 3.7% from 3.2%. They also raised their projection for non-oil domestic export growth to 7.8% from 4.8%.

For 2023, Singapore’s GDP is expected to grow by 3.0%, according to the central bank’s survey. Growth is assessed to be mostly between 3.0% and 3.9%, with an average probability of 33.5%.

The MAS said Wednesday that 23 economists and analysts responded to the latest quarterly survey, the results of which do not represent the views or forecasts of the central bank. The central bank also said all responses were received after the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine on February 24.

Economists expect Singapore’s consumer price index to rise 3.6% in 2022, down from 2.1% previously forecast. The core CPI is expected to rise 2.7% this year, compared to the 1.8% gain forecast in the previous survey.

The exchange rate between the US dollar and the Singapore dollar is forecast at 1.3300 for the end of 2022, unchanged from the previous survey.

Write to Ronnie Harui at [email protected]

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