IMF raises Nigeria’s economic growth forecast to 2.7%



* Still well below the projection of FG

By Babajide Komolafe & Emma Ujah

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its forecast for Nigeria’s economic growth in 2022 and 2021 to 2.7% and 2.6% respectively, citing the recovery of non-oil sectors and the rise in the price of crude oil.

The IMF had forecast earlier in April that the Nigerian economy will grow by 2.3% and 2.5% in 2022 and 2021 respectively.

The latest forecasts appeared in the IMF’s “Regional Economic Outlook for October 2021”, published yesterday on the sidelines of the IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings in Washington.

However, the 2.7% growth forecast by the IMF for Nigeria in 2022 is 1.5 percentage points lower than the 4.2% growth forecast for 2022 by the federal government in its draft medium budget framework. term 2022-2024 and budget strategy document (MTFF / FSP).

“In 2022, we expect absorption to 4.2%, then a decline to 2.3% in 2023 and down to 3.3% in 2024,” said the Minister of Finance, Budget and National Planning, Ms. Zainab Ahmed during the public consultation. on the MTFF / FSP 2022 to 2024 Project.

The IMF also forecast that the sub-Saharan economy will grow 3.8% in 2022 and 3.7% this year.

The IMF said: “The Nigerian economy will grow 2.6% in 2021, driven by the recovery of non-oil sectors and rising oil prices, although oil production is expected to remain below prior levels. COVID-19.

“Growth will increase slightly to 2.7% in 2022 and remain at that level over the medium term, allowing GDP per capita to stabilize at current levels, despite long-standing structural problems and high uncertainties.”

In its projection for sub-Saharan Africa, the IMF said: “Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to grow 3.7% in 2021 and 3.8% in 2022. This rebound is welcome and largely the result of a marked improvement in world trade and commodity prices. Favorable harvests have also helped to increase agricultural production.

“But the recovery is expected to be slower than in advanced economies, leading to widening income gaps. This divergence is expected to persist over the medium term – partly reflecting different access to vaccines, but also marked differences in the availability of the vaccine. political support.

“The outlook remains extremely uncertain and the risks are tilted to the downside. In particular, the recovery depends on the trajectory of the global pandemic and the regional immunization effort, and is also vulnerable to disruptions in global activity and financial markets. “

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