It is now the longest U.S. economic expansion in history

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This month marks the 121st month of economic expansion resulting from the Great Financial Crisis, making it the longest period on record since 1854.

This cycle, which begins in June 2009, breaks the record 120 months of economic growth from March 1991 to March 2001, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Perhaps due to the housing crisis, this run has been weaker than past expansions altogether. The cumulative total of quarterly GDP growth figures is 25%, well below previous booms.

While the unemployment rate fell from a high of 10% in October 2009 to 3.6% in May, the lowest since 1969, job growth has been relatively slower than in other recoveries. after war.

But despite some internal weakness, that expansion continues to continue, getting its latest boost from the Trump tax cut of 2018 as well as an easing of business regulations, economists say.

However, he now appears to need help if he is to continue rewriting the record books. The Atlanta Fed closely watched GDPNow Tracking points to a gain of only 1.5% for the economy in the second quarter after a strong gain of 3.2% in the first quarter. CNBC’s Rapid Update survey puts the GDP tracking estimate at 1.8%.

All eyes will be on Friday’s state of the economy jobs report. Economists expect 158,000 jobs to have been created in June, up sharply from the disappointing 75,000 in May, according to Refinitiv. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.6%.

Wall Street seems divided on the sustainability of this expansion. Some believe the Federal Reserve will save the day by cutting interest rates, while others believe that further stimulus cannot tackle the impending slowdown or that the Fed will not be aggressive enough to avoid it. .

“We still don’t see a recession, but we continue to worry more about downside risks than upside risks to the outlook,” Torsten Slok, Deutsche Bank chief economist, said in an email. “To counter the current data slowdown and uncertainty over the duration of the trade war, we are seeing the Fed cut rates in July, September and December.”

The corporate earnings picture certainly does not look bright. Today, 77% of companies with advance announcements say their profits will be worse than estimates from Wall Street, which marks the second worst quarter on record since 2006.

– CNBC’s John Schoen contributed reporting.


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