Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics launches new survey of the world’s five largest economies

Singapore, September 11, 2019 (Wednesday) – The health of the world’s five largest economies is clearly of concern to business, the public sector and the general public in Singapore, one of the most open and trade-dependent economies in the world.

The Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics (SKBI) at the University of Management of Singapore (SMU) has launched a new biannual survey highlighting the range of factors impacting the economies of China, from the euro area, India, Japan and the United States.

The SKBI Big5 survey was jointly developed by Professor Dave Fernandez, Director of SKBI, and Mr. Tom Lam, Senior Researcher of SKBI, to focus on the multi-year outlook and assessment of the world’s five largest economies. The emphasis, content and diversity of the Big5 survey are unique, unlike other surveys available in the market. The Big5 survey also seeks to establish a recurring platform in Singapore for a diverse group of participants to explore relevant risks and opportunities surrounding the global economic landscape.

The inaugural Big5 survey, conducted in August, has the following varied list of participants: Bank of Singapore, DBS Group, GIC, ING Bank NV, Moody’s Investors Service, TD Securities, UBS and United Overseas Bank Group.

According to SKBI researchers, an overall interpretation of the results of the Big5 multi-year survey implies that the Indian economy could be considered the least at risk overall, while the euro area economy appears to be the most at risk. risk. Our scale known as the economy at risk, in descending order, is as follows: India, China, United States, Japan and the euro zone.

Overall, survey participants expect the risks to GDP growth to be on the downside in 2019 and 2020, followed by a more balanced assessment of the risks to growth in 2021. In Regarding inflation, participants seem to lean towards a more balanced risk assessment from 2019 to 2021, with the exception of the euro area, where a modest majority see greater disinflationary risks in 2019 and 2020.

SKBI researchers also note that, perhaps in light of the reduced policy space, participants predict that policymakers in Japan will generally be more reluctant to pursue additional policy stimulus (monetary and fiscal). Although participants seem to consider euro area policymakers to be less hesitant about further stimulus (monetary and fiscal), the effectiveness of policies may be an increasingly critical issue in the future. .

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